Looking at the cloudy crystal ball...

The Stanley Cup playoffs begin Saturday, launching the best time of the NHL season. Will Florida repeat? Is this finally Winnipeg's year? Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings vs. Edmonton?

Back in the days when the Los Angeles Times devoted a good amount of coverage to the Kings and to hockey in general, I would write an annual Stanley Cup playoff preview. After a short introduction I’d list each matchup, detailing each team’s regular-season record, power play and penalty killing stats, and other (hopefully) useful information. Based on that, I’d predict the winner of each series. Some years, I did well. Others, not so well.

It was in one of those not-so-good years that I picked Tampa Bay to win its first-round series only for the Lightning to be swept, a stunning upset. I think it was 2019, when they lost to Columbus.

Because it was such a huge surprise—Tampa Bay had been a near-unanimous predicted pick—I didn’t get a lot harsh criticism from readers for being wrong on that one. But I did get an email from a reader complaining that he had lost a lot of money betting on Tampa Bay, a pick he made based on my prediction. I replied, saying that while I was wrong, I was hardly the only person who didn’t see that coming. I didn’t expect to hear from him again.

But I did: for months afterward, he sent angry, profane, borderline-threatening emails in which he contended I owed him money because he had bet heavily on the Lightning. He was using a corporate email address, so I tried contacting the company to make his boss aware of this employee’s rude behavior. It turned out that he was the boss. Sigh.

Anyway, all of this is to say that I’m going to make some predictions here, but I will preface them with a caution:

DON’T BET WHAT’S LEFT OF YOUR SAVINGS ON THESE PICKS.

The ice is slippery and the puck takes funny bounces, eh? This is for entertainment, for fun, for debate.

That said, taking a deep breath, here we go, in advance of Saturday’s openers:

West

Central 1 Winnipeg (56-22-4) vs. Wild Card 2 St. Louis (44-30-8)

The Jets won the Presidents’ trophy for compiling the NHL’s best regular-season record, while the Blues squeaked into the playoffs. That should produce a mismatch, but the Presidents’ trophy jinx can’t be ignored: The last team to own the best regular-season record and go on to win the Cup was the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. The Jets’ excellence should make them immune to any curse, real or imagined; they didn’t deceptively pad their record by playing in a weak division. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck won the Jennings trophy on the team that allowed the fewest goals, and they had the NHL’s top power play 28.9%). The Blues were 9-12-1 when Jim Montgomery replaced Drew Bannister as coach in November, and they needed a club-record 12-game winning streak to earn a postseason berth. This should be heavy, hard-hitting hockey. Winnipeg, the deeper team, in six.

Pacific 1 Vegas (50-22-10) vs. Wild Card 1 Minnesota (45-30-7)

The Golden Knights regrouped after their defense of their 2023 Cup championship ended in the first round last spring. They finished first in the Pacific for the fourth time in their eight-season existence and ranked among the top five in goals for (3.34 per game), goals against (2.61) and power play success (28.3%). Jack Eichel scored a career-high 94 points, while forwards Pavel Dorofeyev (35 goals) and Tomas Hertl (32) thrived on a big, fast team. The Wild, back in the postseason party after missing out last season, hasn’t won a playoff series since 2014-15. That’s not likely to change, even if dynamic forward Kirill Kaprizov, who missed a big chunk of the season because of a lower-body injury that required surgery, regains his old stellar form. Vegas in five.

Pacific 2 Kings (48-25-9) vs. Pacific 3 Edmonton (48-29-5)

The Kings don’t open until Monday (which gives them time to rebound from a blah regular-season final loss to Calgary on Thursday in a game that had no playoff impact), so I’ll revisit them in depth in a few days. But this is the first time in their four straight matchups against the Oilers that I think the Kings will win. Throw out their last two regular-season meetings—shutout wins by the Kings on April 5 and April 14—because both the Kings and Oilers lacked many core players who were injured or resting. The Kings’ franchise-record 31 home wins gave them home-ice advantage for this series, and that could prove crucial. The Kings’ goaltending (Darcy Kuemper (2.02 goals-against average and .922 save percentage) and defensive strength make them better equipped than in previous series to stop Connor McDavid, who scored 14 points against them in their 2021-22 playoff series, 10 in 2023, and 12 in five games in 2023-24, and Leon Draisaitl, who racked up nine points against them in 2021-22, 11 in 2022-23, and 10 in 2023-24. Kings in seven.

Central 2 Dallas (50-26-6) vs. Central 3 Colorado (49-29-4)

Injuries could be a major factor the Stars. It’s not clear if defenseman Miro Heiskanen (knee) or game-changing winger Jason Robertson (lower-body injury) will be able to play for Dallas, and center Tyler Seguin played only one game after hip surgery kept him out of 58 games. Colorado could get a boost from the remarkable return of Gabriel Landeskog, who hadn’t played for three years because of extensive knee surgery. Explosive forward Mikko Rantanen, who played for the Avalanche when the Stars eliminated them last season, is now with Dallas. The Stars have slightly better penalty killing, but Colorado had a more potent power play. Dallas has better goaltending in Jake Oettinger; Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood has yet to compete in the playoffs. However, Colorado’s Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are game-breakers. This should be a conference final, not a first-round series. Colorado in seven.

East

Metropolitan 1 Washington (51-22-9) vs. Wild Card 2 Montreal (40-31-11)

Washington left wing Alexander Ovechkin, who broke Wayne Gretzky’s career regular-season goals record of 894, will continue pursuing Gretzky’s NHL record of 1,016 goals in regular season and playoffs combined. Ovechkin is at 969. Seven Capitals scored at least 20 goals this season—among them Pierre-Luc Dubois, who scored a career-high 65 points in a strong turnaround from his struggles with the Kings. This should be great experience for outstanding and well-rounded Montreal defenseman Lane Hutson, who led all rookies in scoring, with 66 points in 82 games, and was tops in ice time (22:44) among rookies who played regularly. The Canadiens faltered down the stretch while a playoff spot was within reach, not a good omen. The Capitals, the top seed in the East, are simply too good. Washington in five.

Atlantic 1 Toronto (52-26-4) vs. Wild Card 1 Ottawa (45-30-7)

The Battle of Ontario returns for the first time since 2004. But there’s an even longer drought in play: the Maple Leafs haven’t won the Cup since 1967, when the NHL had six teams and the playoffs consisted of two rounds. A bit has changed since then. The Maple Leafs have good scoring depth, led by Mitch Marner’s 102 points, William Nylander’s 45 goals (second only to Draisaitl), 38 goals by John Tavares, and 33 from Auston Matthews despite injuries. Ottawa, after missing the playoffs the previous seven seasons, could fall back to a just-happy-to-be-here attitude, but the geographic rivalry will probably give them fire. Still, Toronto in six.

Atlantic 2 Tampa Bay (47-27-8) vs. Atlantic 3 Florida (47-31-4)

They finished four points apart during the regular season, but Tampa Bay had by far the better goal differential (+75, to defending champion Florida’s +29) and the Lightning has three-time NHL scoring champion Nikita Kucherov (121 points) among its seven players with 20 or more goals. The Panthers’ scrappiness and physicality (enhanced by the trade acquisition of Brad Marchand), are vital to their success. But the availability of sparkplug forward Matthew Tkachuk, who sustained a lower-body injury during the Four Nations Cup, is unclear. With him, this should be great rollicking entertainment. Tampa Bay in seven.

Metropolitan 2 Carolina (47-30-5) vs. Metropolitan 3 New Jersey (42-33-7)

The Hurricanes have fallen short of their potential the past few seasons, looking good enough for a deep run but never quite getting there. They should win this one, but it could be close. New Jersey just got defenseman Dougie Hamilton back from an injury and won’t have forward Jack Hughes, but the Devils ranked in the top five in power play efficiency (Carolina was second-worst among playoff teams). Carolina ranked near the top in penalty killing. The teams were close in goals against per game, and Carolina had an edge in goals for. Carolina is the logical pick, but New Jersey could put up a fight. Carolina in six.

That’s it for the NHL. But wait—there’s more!

For those who follow the NBA, I’m picking the Lakers over the Minnesota Timberwolves in six in a series that starts Saturday with the Lakers holding homecourt advantage. The teams split their season series 2-2 but Luka Doncic, who joined the Lakers in a shocking trade with Dallas in early February, played in only the last of those four games. Stopping Doncic (28.2 points per game), LeBron James (24.4 points per game at age 40), and Austin Reeves (20.2 points per game) will be a handful for the Timberwolves, who compiled the NBA’s sixth-best defensive rating this season.

The Clippers, who no longer share Crypto Arena with the Lakers and Kings, avoided falling into the play-in tournament by winning in overtime on the last day of the regular season to set up a matchup against Denver. The Clippers won their last eight games and 18 of their last 21 and have one of the best defensive ratings in the NBA. The Nuggets surprisingly fired their coach and general manager with three games left in the regular season, which could cause uncertainty. It’s tough to not pick Denver because of Nikola Jokic, who was the NBA’s most valuable player in three of the previous four seasons and is a strong candidate to win again, and because they have one of the league’s best offensive ratings. But the Clippers have a lot of dimensions, and if Kawhi Leonard is healthy (always a big if), they should advance in six or seven.

Happy playoffs to all!